By 2037, federal spending is projected to grow to 35.7 percent of GDP, whereas tax revenues are almost certain not to exceed their historical upper limit of about 20 percent. Unless expenditures for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are tightened, the federal government will likely end up repudiating some or all of its debt obligations.

David R. Henderson is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, an Associate Professor of Economics at the Naval Postgraduate School, and a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
Jeffrey Rogers Hummel is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and Professor of Economics at San Jose State University.
Economic History and DevelopmentEconomyFiscal Policy/DebtGovernment and PoliticsTaxes
Other Independent Review articles by David R. Henderson
Summer 2018 Why We Fight: A Study of U.S. Government War-Making Propaganda
Fall 2016 An Economist’s Case for a Noninterventionist Foreign Policy
Winter 2015/16 The Economy in 2065: Predictions and Cautions
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Other Independent Review articles by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel
Winter 2022/23 Operation Keelhaul: Forced Repatriation after World War II
Spring 2011 Ben Bernanke versus Milton Friedman: The Federal Reserve’s Emergence as the U.S. Economy’s Central Planner
Spring 2001 The Will to Be Free: The Role of Ideology in National Defense
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