The U.S. economy underwent a brief recession in the first half of 2022 according to the traditional definition of a recession as consisting of at least two successive calendar quarters of negative real growth in GDP. This conclusion has been challenged by the NBER’s use of a composite blend of several judgmentally based economic indicators to identify recessions. However, the traditional definition is superior: it is more objective, embodies a definite, objective measurement that is manifest for all to see, and is timely—unlike the NBER’s slow motion ruminations, which are based on vague criteria.
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John F. Gaski is professor emeritus of marketing at Mendoza College of Business, University of Notre Dame.
