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Research Article

Why Models Run Hot
Results from an Irreducibly Simple Climate Model

An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause. In 1990, the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expressed “substantial confidence” that near-term global warming would occur twice as fast as subsequent observation. Given rising CO2 concentration, few models predicted no warming since 2001.

David R. Legates is an Associate Professor and Director of the Center for Climatic Research at the University of Delaware and a Research Fellow at The Independent Institute in Oakland, Calif. He is also co-author of the Independent Institute monograph, New Perspectives in Climate Change: What the EPA Isn't Telling Us.

William M. Briggs has served as Professor of Statistics at the Cornell University Medical School, Visiting Professor of Mathematics at Central Michigan University, Research Scientist at New York Methodist Hospital, Statistician at DoubleClick, Meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and Cryptologist for the U.S. Air Force.

Christopher Monckton is the 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley in the United Kingdom. He was Special Advisor to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher from 1982 to 1986, and he has served as Secretary for the Centre for Policy Studies's economic, forward strategy, health and employment study groups; Deputy Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP); and the UKIP's President in Scotland.

Wei-Hock "Willie" Soon is a solar astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.