YAGUARON, ParaguayA feisty populist former priest could win next Aprils Paraguayan elections and become Hugo Chavezs new ally in this country bordering Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia. The rise of Fernando Lugo, who was active in liberation theology movement within the Catholic Church, illustrates the inadequacies of Latin Americas democratic systems, which periodically give rise to left-wing movements fueled by social resentment.
I came to Yaguaron, a sleepy town to the south of Asuncion that seems frozen in the 18th century, to shoot a documentary on authoritarianism in Latin America. My focus has been on Jose Gaspar Rodriguez de Francia, a fascinating man who ruled Paraguay with an iron fist in the first half of the 19th century and is partly responsible for this countrys despotic tradition. I was surprised to find people, from peasants to schoolteachers, who still express admiration for a leader who built his regime on the notion that Paraguay should be cut off from the rest of the world and ordered all Paraguayans to touch their hat brims when they met him.
A modern-day version of Dr. Francia might be in the offering. A coalition known as the Concertacion Nacional thinks that Lugo could be the answer to the corrupt politics of the Colorado Party, which has ruled this country for more than six decades. In response to a system that has pushed many people to make a living through smuggling, including drugs, Lugos supporters propose a combination of socialist and nationalist policies under their firebrand leader who, like his Venezuelan mentor, Chavez, promises social justice. Paraguays tragedy is that their diagnosis is rightand their remedy a recipe for disaster.
Yes, the nation has suffocated under the Colorado Party of which Alfredo Stroessner, the dictator who held power for 35 years until 1989, was the central character. And, yes, the democratic system that has followed Stroessner has done little to make itself legitimate in the eyes of ordinary Paraguayans. Apart from the traditional soybean, cotton and meat exports, few legal economic opportunities have opened up under a coterie of politicians, soldiers and established business interests who decide everything.
Few things can be more telling with regard to the farce that is Paraguayan politics than the fact that the current president, Nicanor Duarte, is willing to talk to Lino Oviedo, a general who served a jail sentence for attempting a military coup, to persuade him to step into the presidential fray in order to stop Lugo.
This is precisely the kind of environment in which Latin American populism thrives. Paraguayans see Lugo as something of the redeemer, a spiritual figure capable of towering above the discredited institutions to set things right. His supporters fail to see that populist policiesbased on concentrating power in the presidents hands, placing companies under government control, weakening commercial ties with the outside worldare responsible for their condition in the first place. For instance, many Paraguayans blame the free-trade policies of the South American common market for their poverty when, in fact, that regional arrangement is a monument to bureaucratic obstacles limiting the free flow of people, goods and services. (I can attest to that after traveling between Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay with a multinational TV crew.)
Roberto, a grower of the herb yerba mate who lives near Yaguaron, tells me that Paraguayans need another Stroessner to stop Lugo. He is one of those who fall into the trap of thinking that the alternative to left-wing populism is right-wing authoritarianism. He did some nasty things to some people, Roberto acknowledges of the late dictator, but there was order in the country.
Stroessner did some nasty things all right, as a quick visit to La Tecnicanow a museum but once a prison on Asuncions Chile Street where his henchmen tortured Martin Almada, a nonviolent left-wing activist, in the 1970sshows in gruesome detail. But no, Roberto, there was no real order in Paraguay. The best proof is that two decades after the general was expelled from power, the nation is debating whether to bring in a military thug or opt for a populist former priest, two extremes that guarantee that this landlocked country will not be stable for quite some time.
Alvaro Vargas Llosa is Senior Fellow of The Center on Global Prosperity at The Independent Institute. He is a native of Peru and received his B.S.C. in international history from the London School of Economics. His Independent Institute books include Global Crossings: Immigration, Civilization, and America, Lessons From the Poor: Triumph of the Entrepreneurial Spirit, The Che Guevara Myth and the Future of Liberty, and Liberty for Latin America.
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