To begin the first chapter of Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner make the point that we all are forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold. The stated goal of the book is to parse out of the general population those rare souls (roughly 20%) who are amazingly good forecasters or, as the term is coined by the authors, superforecasters. It is the authors goal not only to explain in detail why these forecasters are so good, but also to pass the knowledge about how they forecast on to others.
|Vern McKinley is a Research Fellow at The Independent Institute and author of Financing Failure: A Century of Bailouts from The Independent Institute.|