Doug Ford’s Populist Politics and the Fate of Ontario

With trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. dead in the water, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is doubling down on theatrics while Ontario’s economy stagnates. Ford was elected in 2018 after defeating a worn-out and corrupt liberal government that had been in power for 15 years. He ran a campaign on nifty slogans that he was “For the People,” a buck a beer, and criticized the elites. During his acceptance speech, he promised a government that would reduce taxes and bring back prosperity. Three majority governments later, the people of Ontario are still waiting for prosperity to return. 

In trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S., Ford has taken on the role of Captain Canada, becoming a vocal critic of tariffs. He discusses trade daily, though trade negotiations are not his responsibility. He has stated that if Prime Minister Carney can’t reach a deal to end U.S. tariffs, Ottawa should start hitting back hard with retaliatory measures, and he is prepared to cut off shipments of energy, minerals, and exports. He is often seen wearing a MAGA-like hat reading “Canada Is Not For Sale.” “I’m a street fighter in politics, he says, if someone throws me a punch, I’m going to hit him back twice as hard.” The Ford government has launched a $75 million advertising campaign in the U.S. that features former President Ronald Reagan’s dire warning that trade barriers hurt workers and consumers. The campaign evokes nostalgia, but it is not very honest because the Canadian economy is protectionist, with supply management controlling agricultural products, and the finance and telecom sectors are oligopolies.

Recently, Ford expressed his populist anger when Diageo announced that it would close a plant and relocate it to the U.S., resulting in job losses. The Premier called a press conference, produced a bottle of one of the company’s leading brands, Crown Royal, and proceeded to pour it out in front of the cameras.  He then warned Diageo management: “I swear to God, those bottles of Crown Royal are coming off the LCBO shelves. When the last person walks out through that door, we’re going to make sure LCBO takes off their brands because we need to stick together.” Ford has removed American products, including Jack Daniel’s and California wines, and has not changed this policy, despite Prime Minister Carney’s backing away from retaliatory tariffs. If Ford continues to remove liquor brands, there won’t be anything left to sell.

The province of Ontario aims to undertake significant infrastructure projects, but struggles to complete them on time and within budget. Toronto’s Eglinton Crosstown light rail project, which has been under construction for 15 years and cost billions, has yet to open. Ford, of course, is not learning anything from this treasury-depleting experience and has promised to build a 60-meter underground tunnel under one of the world’s busiest highways to accommodate cars and public transit. The tunnel would be the biggest project in Canadian provincial history, and the Ford government refuses to produce any evidence to support that it’s a solution to traffic congestion or how much it will cost. Shoshanna Saxe, a professor of civil and mineral engineering at the University of Toronto, stated that the construction would worsen congestion for 20 years, cost between $50 and $100 billion, and take two decades to complete. For a province with massive debts that relies on federal subsidies to help pay its bills, a major undertaking like a tunnel could be devastating.

The U.S. administration has declared the auto sector a strategic industry, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said that Canada should come second to the U.S. on autos. The President has suggested that the two countries compete for the same business. The reality is that Canada’s auto sector is in decline. In 2000, nearly three million cars and trucks were manufactured; this number fell to 1.5 million in 2023 and is projected to decline further.   If tariffs remain in place, Ontario’s auto sector will decrease by 22 percent while U.S. output increases by 13.7 percent, according to an analysis conducted by Budget Lab at Yale University. Ford has become overly protective of the auto industry, which employs thousands. A close relationship with unions is obscuring the reality that the sector cannot survive with tariffs in place. Australia faced a similar situation when tariffs were imposed, causing the industry to shut down. Initially,  job losses weighed heavily on autoworkers, but they managed to find employment in other industries. 

Boasting the highest average income, Ontario’s economy was once the envy of Canada. Today, its economy is a drag on national growth. During the past two decades, Ontario has run deficits 80 percent of the time. Debt levels under the Ford Conservatives are worse than they were under the previous Liberal government. Not only does the province spend billions on social welfare, but it also hands out billions in corporate welfare. The government now spends $10 billion a year giving taxpayer money to private companies. The auto industry has received billions, including a $5.4 billion handout to Stellantis and $2.5 billion to Honda, along with substantial subsidies for electricity. The province is running a deficit of $12 billion per year, with weekly interest of $300 million on that debt. Ontario is considered the most indebted subnational jurisdiction in the world. Jay Goldberg, Director of the Ontario Canadian Taxpayers Federation, states, “If you eliminated corporate welfare, you could cut sales tax by three percentage points,” and” rather than injecting billions of dollars into billionaire companies, the provincial government could lower taxes on small businesses, balancing the budget and stimulating economic growth.”

Ford needs to reconnect with his conservative roots and refrain from interfering in local issues such as bike lanes, speed cameras, and awarding large contracts to friends. His ongoing anti-Trump comments are harming trade negotiations. The Premier needs to focus on fixing a broken economy with declining living standards and unemployment hitting 7.9 percent. Ontario requires sweeping reforms to spark economic growth, including reducing taxes for individuals and corporations to improve competitiveness, as well as eliminating burdensome regulations. Unless Ford can act like a Premier again, he will be remembered as a big-time spending liberal who has failed the people of Ontario.