How to Make Uncle Sam’s Spending Sustainable
April 3, 2026
In the 30 fiscal years from 2026 to 2056, the U.S. government’s annual spending is projected to grow from $7.54 trillion to $26.96 trillion. The federal government’s annual tax collections will grow from $5.66 trillion to $18.14 trillion.
If things go as the CBO projects, Uncle Sam’s annual budget deficit will grow from $1.87 trillion in 2026 to nearly $8.82 trillion in 2056. That’s a massive amount of red ink that keeps growing over time.
These non-inflation-adjusted figures can be confirmed using data the Congressional Budget Office released in February 2026 to support its Long-Term Budget Outlook from 2026 to 2056.
The reason the deficit keeps growing every year is simple. The CBO expects the U.S. government’s spending to increase at about 4.35% each year. Meanwhile, the CBO projects that the government’s tax collections will grow a little more slowly, averaging about a 4.05% increase each year. Because the rate at which spending grows is faster than the rate at which its revenue grows, the CBO anticipates the U.S. government’s already bad fiscal condition will only get worse.
It doesn’t have to be that way.
Using the CBO’s data, I ran three scenarios to consider how the U.S. government might be put onto a sustainable fiscal path. For an extra challenge, I did it without either increasing taxes or reducing spending below 2026’s level.
The chart below illustrates the three scenarios and their outcomes.
The first scenario assumes freezing Uncle Sam’s spending at 2026 levels until the budget is balanced. This scenario can deliver a balanced budget in 2034, just eight years from now. After achieving that target, the U.S. government’s spending must be put on a sustainable path. The rate at which spending grows must be restrained to rise at a rate less than the average rate at which the U.S. government’s tax collections grow.
The second scenario allows spending to grow at a 1.5% rate each year. If the growth of government spending is restrained to this amount, the U.S. government would have a balanced budget to show for it in 2038, just 4 years later than in the 0% spending growth scenario. Once again, after it reaches that balance, spending growth is limited to increase more slowly than tax collections to keep it sustainable.
The third scenario almost doubles the rate at which spending is allowed to grow in the second scenario, with spending growth restrained to an average 2.9% per year. This scenario would lead to a balanced budget in 2054, which fits within the CBO’s 30-year projection.
Here’s the big takeaway. The more the U.S. government’s spending growth is restrained, the faster the government’s fiscal situation improves.
Ultimately, what it takes to make and keep the U.S. government’s spending sustainable is to slow its growth to a rate below that of government tax collections. Why do so many politicians and bureaucrats resist this commonsense approach?
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