President George W. Bush recently visited Slovenia for a summit between the United States and the 27-nation European Union. Slovenia is the only success story emanating from the violent ethnic break up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s after the Cold War ended. The reasons for its success, and lack thereof in other new states originating from the now defunct Yugoslavia, should inform policy decisions in faraway Iraq.
Unfortunately, in the 1990s, violence during Yugoslavias break up tended to be directly proportional to the ethno-sectarian diversity of the geographical entity. Sloveniathe most ethnically, religiously, culturally, and linguistically homogeneous of the former Yugoslav stateshad the least violence during the disintegration. After a war of independence from Yugoslavia in 1991 that lasted only 10 days and killed only 70 people, Slovenia has flourished politically and economically. In contrast, in the more ethnically and religiously diverse Croatia, severe violence occurred in its subsequent war of independence. Even worse, the most ethnically and religiously heterogeneous piece of geography in the former YugoslaviaBosniahad a brutal civil war with the worst atrocities committed in Europe since World War II. The Western powers, led by the United States, became involved and forced the parties into the uneasy Dayton peace accord.
The primary reason that Bosnia has not exploded into renewed civil war since the 1990s is the Dayton accords creation of a decentralized Bosnian state. Such a governing arrangement allows each groupthe Serbs, the Croats, and the Muslimsto have autonomous governance and a veto over decisions by the weak central government. The structure is not perfect, but it has helped prevent further eruptions of ethno-sectarian carnage.
Although faraway geographically, culturally, ethnically, and religiously from the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, like Bosnia, is an artificial country containing many ethno-sectarian divisions. Also as in Bosnia, politically correct Western do-gooderssome of whom histrionically argue that decentralized autonomous rule by ethno-sectarian groups constitutes apartheidwould like a stronger central government in Iraq. In fact, the already decentralized Iraqi governance needs to allow even more autonomy to ethno-sectarian and tribally based jurisdictions. Apartheidin which one dominant group enforces racial, ethnic, or sectarian separation using coercive meansis much different from boundaries for autonomous governance created voluntarily by ethno-sectarian groups. We in the wealthy United States may not choose this type of voluntary ethno-sectarian-based governancealthough the United States does have voluntary ethnically or racially homogeneous areasbut it may be the only means to achieve a modicum of stability in some developing countries racked with internecine ethno-sectarian violence.
Unfortunately, many areas in Iraq have become more homogeneous because of forced ethnic cleansing between ethno-sectarian populations. But returning refugees to their homes would probably only rekindle the slaughter. Instead, if new autonomous regions are created, incentives may have to be provided to get them, and people stuck on the wrong side of the boundaries, to permanently relocate to safer areas.
In the short-term, the United States has reduced the violence in Iraq. It has done so, however, by reinforcing ethno-sectarian identitiesfor example, by arming and training former Sunni guerrillas and Shii militiamen and by relying on Iran to broker a cease-fire with the Shii militia of Moktada al-Sadr, instead of undertaking a U.S. attempt to defeat this force. At the same time, the United States has contradictorily demanded that these same parties reconcile and share control of a central government.
Given Iraqs history of one group dominating the central government machinerythe Sunnisand using it to oppress the other groupsthe Kurds and the Shiathe groups will likely eventually fight over any significant central government power. Thus, to prevent an all-out civil war when the United States finally pulls its finger out of the dike and withdraws its military forces from the country, the power of the Iraqi government will probably have to be reduced to a weak confederation of autonomous regions based on voluntary tribal or ethno-sectarian associations. And even then, the best Iraq can probably hope for is uneasy stabilitysimilar to than afforded to Bosnia by its weak confederation.