Bullet Train or Bay Bridge?

California’s high-speed rail project has surged from the original $33 billion to a staggering  $231 billion. As Katy Grimes of the California Globe explains, that markup started in 2008, when voters approved Proposition 1A. Nearly 20 years later, the vaunted “bullet train” has yet to carry a single passenger.

For UCLA economist Lee Ohanian, the rail system is a fantasy with “no path to completion,” and the only reasonable decision is “to end a project that never should have begun.” As the Globe’s Megan Barth reports, that could now become a more difficult matter. 

Assembly Bill 1608, by Suisun City Democrat Lori Wilson, “would rename and expand the powers of the High-Speed Rail Authority’s Inspector General while creating broad exemptions to withhold audit records, internal documents, and any information that could ‘reveal weaknesses’ in the project.” Rep. Kevin Kiley claims “our country has never seen a fiscal disaster of this magnitude,” which invites a comparison with the new span of the Bay Bridge from San Francisco to Oakland.

The old span, damaged in the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, was repaired in one month and could have been retrofitted for $230-250 million. California opted for a stylish new span originally pegged at $1.5 billion. The span came in 10 years late and cost $6.5 billion, but there’s more to consider.

The bullet train carries zero passengers, so there is no possibility of sudden loss of life. That is not the case with the new span of the Bay Bridge, plagued with construction and safety issues from the start. For example, a Caltrans inspector who falsified data worked on three of the bridge’s foundation pilings. 

In the spring of 2005, the FBI investigated allegations that welders were encouraged to save time by producing substandard welds. Fifteen welders claimed that welds, since covered in concrete, were dangerously weak, and supervisors ordered them to hide defects. Caltrans and Cal-OSHA, state agencies overseeing the bridge, claimed the allegations were false.

In 2012, complaints arose over the use of Chinese steel, Chinese labor, and delays in construction. Caltrans spokesman Bart Ney, who had assured the bridge’s seismic safety, told reporters the bridge was a “success story” before a single member of the public had crossed the span.

The bridge was slated to open on Labor Day weekend, 2013, but in May, problems with bolts came to the fore. UC Berkeley structural engineering professor Abolhassan Astaneh-Asi told reporters, “If those bolts fail at the top of the tower, the entire cable will fall off the tower,” and if that happened, “the complete collapse of the bridge is likely.”

Jerry Brown, as mayor of Oakland (1999-2007), was involved in planning the new bridge. As the opening approached, the San Francisco Democrat aired his concerns. “Don’t know if it’s a setback,” Brown told reporters, “I mean, look, shit happens. There are very professional engineers that are looking at this thing, and when they’re ready to give us their report, I think the public will be satisfied.”

Bridge officials also disclosed that three dozen safety rods had broken. The rods connect the bridge to shear keys that control movement during an earthquake, and that had Brown concerned.

“I take it very seriously, and that thing’s not going to open unless it’s ready,” Brown told reporters. “And the engineers are telling me that they’re doing the kind of work that will be needed for that.” Gov. Brown did not attend the ceremony, but the bridge did open that Labor Day weekend.

Hearings on the bridge in January and August of 2014 revealed more issues with cracked welds, whistleblowers reassigned, steel embrittlement, and so forth. These issues had not come to light because California legislators granted an exemption from open-meeting laws.

Caltrans officials contended that the bridge was safe and good for 150 years. That view was shared by State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, chairman of the transportation and housing committee, who held the hearings. In 2014, the Concord Democrat moved on to Congress.

The new span has proved safe—at the time officials pronounced it so. The big test will be the next major Bay Area earthquake, which Caltrans officials said was going to happen. As the quake awaits, consider China’s Hongqi Bridge, a “new species of structure” built with composite steels, “smart” dampening systems, and “critical, millimeter-perfect welds” performed by “AI-guided robots.”

On Nov. 11, 2025, a landslide caused the Hongqi Bridge “to fracture and collapse,” NBC News reported, “sending large pieces of concrete far below in a cloud of dust.” That disaster prompted little reflection on the prospects of California’s China-made bridge, with all the issues revealed in the hearings.

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), “the threat of earthquakes extends across the entire San Francisco Bay region, and a major quake is likely before 2032.” In the meantime, the bullet train and Bay Bridge make a strong case that California is the state most unaccountable to taxpayers.