The Art of (Accepting) the (Face-Saving) Deal

Iran has proposed opening the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic if President Donald Trump removes his naval blockade of Iranian ports and ends his war against that country, according to the news outlets of Axios and Associated Press, which quoted regional officials knowledgeable of talks between Iran and mediator Pakistan. Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program would be undertaken in a later phase of the agreement.

Despite all the U.S. tactical successes in blowing things up in Iran, the Iranians have the conflict’s strategic trump card of a stranglehold on international maritime shipping, which has drastically increased prices on petroleum-based products and other vital commercial items for the entire world. Above all, Trump is under pressure from Republicans to get rid of this tar baby before the 2026 mid-term elections, which, even with the war ending, look daunting for them politically. Unfortunately, during the two-month conflict, after running through a litany of excuses for what was a war of choice seemingly taken on a presidential whim, Trump has lately landed on: The Iranians are “not going to have the nuclear bomb,” the program that he had earlier said had been “obliterated” in the June 2025 war with Iran.

However, despite the heavy bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities in the previous conflict, that fissile material likely remains in Iran’s possession. The Iranians possess the knowledge of a technology that is more than 80 years old, and they continue to exploit it. Thus, skepticism should arise that since bunker-busting attacks from the air didn’t eliminate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, only a substantial ground invasion could do the trick. Because the short-term-oriented Trump has been clearly skittish of “forever wars,” it remains that no good viable option continues to exist to get rid of Iran’s nuclear efforts, especially since even this air and naval campaign was unpopular with the American public from the start. Therefore, negotiations on the nuclear program are the only game in town.

Trump needs a face-saving way out of this self-imposed mess, and the first step is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He can argue that his attacks on Iran and naval blockade caused Iran to release its grip on the waterway and that Iran’s military capabilities were severely degraded by his war. He can also reopen talks on Iran’s nuclear program and can claim that the Iranians will be more prone to reach an acceptable nuclear deal now that he has shown them the potency of U.S. military power. Trump might then be able to negotiate a “back to the future” swap of restricting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief—not reminding people that his nemesis, Barack Obama, had achieved a similar agreement without using force.

Of course, the Iranians will crow that they won the war because their chokehold on the Strait caused the president of the U.S. superpower to cease air and naval hostilities. But at least both sides will have a plausible story to tell, thus smoothing the way toward the restoration of peace.

Right now, Trump probably will reject this deal, and both sides believe they can outlast the other in the waterway. However, the autocratic regime in Tehran needs to deal less with public opinion than an American president who is coping with an already disgruntled populace at home before a mid-term election. Because the real center of gravity in this conflict—as with many asymmetric wars involving democracies—is not in the Strait of Hormuz but in U.S. public opinion, Trump may be more receptive to the Iranian proposal as the election draws nearer. That’s probably what the Iranians hope for, and it would actually be the best solution for the world.