Government Shutdown Theater Gets a New Plot

The scheduled spring performance of government shutdown theater didn’t go as planned this year. The performance was set up just before Christmas 2024, when lame duck President Joe Biden signed a short-term spending bill that would keep the U.S. government’s lights on for about another three months. The bill did that by increasing the U.S. government’s debt limit to $36.1 trillion.

By design, that increase wouldn’t be enough to cover all the U.S. government’s spending previously approved by Congress for its 2025 fiscal year, which lasts through September 30, 2025. Because the departing Biden administration was going out in a blaze of excess spending, the U.S. government smacked into that debt ceiling on January 22.

As it did, the U.S. Treasury Department was forced to once again turn to “extraordinary measures” to allow the U.S. government to continue operating. However, these measures only delayed the potential shutdown of the U.S. government. As it was, the Treasury Department could borrow time by playing its shell game with the nation’s debt until mid-March. Unless an increase in the debt limit was passed, large parts of the government would be forced to shut down as its borrowed time ran out.

Writing the Plot

Members of the then-Democratic Party majority in the Senate wanted that outcome so they could have leverage in budget negotiations. Leverage they needed because they would be in the minority in the upcoming new session of Congress. Because the majority Republican Party had fewer than 60 members in the Senate, they would need the votes of Democratic Party members to pass measures raising the debt limit to keep the federal government running.

They counted on having the ability to shut down the government to force the incoming Trump administration into accepting their spending priorities. Their top priority is no limits or reductions in spending on their political priorities.

The Democrat’s Plan Becomes a Losing Strategy

Three things came together to undermine the Democrats’ strategy. The incoming Trump administration launched a serious assault on waste, fraud, and abuse within government spending. President Trump rebranded President Obama’s U.S. Digital Service as the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency Service (DOGE). But rather than continuing its track record of fiscal impotence, it was retooled. Now, it would aggressively identify and go after government spending waste to zero it out.

While that early initiative quickly gained success, President Trump also succeeded in placing his appointed officials into their new positions. Most importantly, the U.S. Senate approved the appointment of Russell Vought as director of the White House Office of Management and Budget. Vought’s appointment gave President Trump full control over which government operations would remain open or be closed in the event of a government shutdown.

The third thing was the unlikely unity of Republicans in passing a continuing resolution in the House of Representatives. This one big spending bill would avoid any shutdowns through at least the end of September.

All Pain, No Gain for Democrats

With the action now in the Senate, only the resistance of Senate Democrats could produce a government shutdown. But instead of having the leverage they sought to gain, they faced two choices, both painful. They could approve the Republicans’ one big spending bill that would support President Trump’s agenda, or they could vote against it and shut the government down.

But wait, there’s more. If the spending bill passed, it would open the door for the Senate to proceed with spending rescission bills. These bills only require the approval of a simple majority of Senators to come to a vote rather than the three-fifths majority needed for the continuing resolution. For example, spending cuts identified by DOGE could now easily be given the force of law through simple votes of Congress. Votes that would proceed without any possibility of filibuster by the minority Democrats.

However, with a government shutdown, President Trump’s team would be able to achieve spending cuts immediately. The people responsible for that outcome would be the Senate Democrats. Not only would they lose on spending, but they would also be sure to feel the political pain from their supporters from now through the next elections.

No Way Out

With no way out and their strategy in tatters, the Senate Democrats’ leadership crumpled like a cheap suit. In the end, ten Democratic Party senators made the passage of the Republicans’ one-big spending bill bipartisan.

What matters next is what Republicans do with their victory after this episode of government shutdown theater. They have the chance to put the U.S. government on a more sustainable fiscal path. Will they take it?