Go South, Young Man, Go South

The famed editor of the New-York Tribune, Horace Greeley, said shortly after the end of the Civil War: “Go West, young man, go West and grow up with the country.” The Westward Movement was central to the American Experience. Additionally, an important secondary migration occurred in the era between the Civil War and about 1980, as many southerners fled their region for higher-paying factory and other jobs in the Northeast and Midwest. Similarly, the literally tens of millions of immigrants arriving on American shores in the 19th and early 20th centuries avoided the South like the plague, settling in large numbers in Eastern and Midwestern states. This huge inflow from abroad was on top of birth rates among American women in the 18th and early 19th centuries that were three or four times those of today. The American population grew by a third every decade.

But new Census Bureau data confirm a demographic revolution of sorts has occurred. First, of course, population growth has slowed dramatically with sharply lower fertility. It is likely that for this decade, the population will rise only about 6 percent, though to be sure, more than in many other nations like China, Japan, and Russia, where the number of inhabitants is actually significantly declining. As people get richer, they seemingly feel less inclined to have kids. Are children what economists call “inferior goods,” for whom demand declines with a rising standard of living?

Moreover, between 2020 and 2025, nearly three-quarters of our nation’s modest population growth occurred in the South, and nearly 90 percent of that was because of in-migration, both of immigrants from other countries and from sizable domestic movement.

The leading state for population growth in the middle of the last century was California, largely reflecting the Westward Movement. As late as the 1980s, the population grew by over six million in a decade. But in the five years 2020 to 2025, nearly 1.7 million more Californians left the state than moved in, and the total population actually fell for the first time in history. From the richest man on the planet, Elon Musk, to far poorer Californians, on average, 926 persons every day abandoned the Golden State (39 every hour, day and night). The absolute numbers exceeded the number fleeing East Germany at the height of the Cold War around 1960, leading the East Germans to build the Berlin Wall. Will the last one leaving California please turn off the lights!

The population of Florida, by contrast, is nearly five times as large today as in 1960, fueled by massive in-migration from other states and countries (most famously, Cuba). However, the hoard of usually moderately affluent migrants going to Florida has actually slowed sharply (but not stopped) recently because housing prices have exploded in the Sunshine State from the influx of Northern migrants. Housing demand has been rising much faster than supply.

Of particular interest from a public policy perspective: the evidence is very strong that people were voting with their feet to flee states with relatively large governmental presence to go to ones where government, relatively speaking, left you alone, most obviously manifested in the form of lower taxation. I compared the three largest very liberal states—California, New York, and Illinois—with three large states considered generally conservative, two of which have no state income tax: Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. Every one of the big liberal states had a population decline. By contrast, the three Red states saw a population increase of over 5.2 million from 2020 to 2025, a majority of the nation’s growth.

But the trend extends to smaller states too. Compare solidly Democratic New Mexico with its five neighbors, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, and Utah, all either fairly evenly divided swing states (Colorado and Arizona) or solidly Republican (Utah and Oklahoma). New Mexico’s population rose a paltry 8,006 between 2020 and 2025, while all four of its more conservatively oriented neighbors had at least 20 times that growth, all having solid domestic in-migration, compared with net domestic out-migration in New Mexico. Just as demonstrated in Germany in the Soviet Era and in Korea now, it takes physical barriers (e.g., the Berlin Wall) to keep people from fleeing from the government-dominated area to places where there is more personal freedom.

A good indicator of the migration trends can be discerned from rental prices on trucks moving household goods. I compared the price of renting a 26-foot U-Haul truck in Austin, Texas, and taking it to Los Angeles, California, on Feb. 25, with the exact same trip but in the opposite direction, from LA to Austin. The LA to Austin rental price, $4,729, was nearly triple the price of the same trip ($1,693) in the opposite direction. Why? Few people want to move to LA, so the California city has few trucks available, while Austin is awash with them. Hence, U-Haul is forced to have a very low rental price for those going to LA, and a high one for those leaving it.

In a few years, it appears inevitable that the Democratic leaning states will lose several seats in the Electoral College and U.S. House of Representatives through population reapportionment. In an era of sometimes razor-thin legislative majorities, this could prove crucial. The loss of, say, four House seats in California and two in New York to red states like Texas and Florida very well could make the difference between Republican and Democratic control of the House. What it does for the national political aspirations of ambitious blue state leaders like California’s Governor Gavin Newsom or Illinois’ JB Pritzker is uncertain, but clearly not favorable.

Still, I would not get too ecstatic about the demographic shifts if I were a Republican. We have seen rather radical and unanticipated changes in the political composition of states in less than a generation. In 1956, the South was considered solidly Democratic, yet a generation or so later, it was almost as solidly Republican. In California itself, Republicans were highly competitive in gubernatorial races throughout the 20th century, but much less so in this one. A little over 50 years ago today, conservative icon Ronald Reagan was governor of the Golden State.

One other thing that concerns me after perusing migration and population statistics for well over half a century: America is getting a bit more like Europe. American population growth, once several times that of Europe, is now more similar. Dysfunctional immigration laws and practices are robbing our nation of some of the vitality that comes from new entrepreneurs from overseas, although we still far outshine other parts of the world. Our nation’s economic distinctiveness, its exceptionalism, has evolved because we have historically embraced change rather than resisting it, something that applies to population as well as other economic factors. In the final analysis, the ability in our federal system to “vote with your feet” remains a great positive national attribute.