Despite President Donald Trumps campaign rhetoric of putting America first by repudiating the expensive role as the worlds policeman, calling Hillary Clinton trigger-happy and demanding U.S. allies spend more, he has, according to a new report from CNN, ramped up military intervention from Europe to Africa and the Middle East to South Asia.
Trump is escalating U.S. military presence and activity in Poland, the Baltics, Somalia, Yemen, Syria and may very very well do so in Afghanistan and Libya as well. In Syria, he launched a cosmetic cruise missile strike on a Syrian military base as a symbolic response to President Bashar Assads alleged use of chemical weapons, and he is saber-rattling by suggesting a military response to North Koreas development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.
Although Trump has egged on European allies to spend more on their own security, he recently augmented U.S. forces and funding for those forces in Europe. More generally, a similar contradiction exists. If allies spend more, and the United States, by theoretically eschewing the role of being the worlds policeman, gets enmeshed in fewer conflicts, the U.S. defense budget should see a reduction in size, certainly not the 10 percent increase the president has proposed.
Also illogical is any re-escalation of the war in Afghanistanadding 3,000 to 5,000 new troops to the 8,000 already therewithout any new strategy to stanch the resurgence of the Taliban. This war has gone on for 16 years, but the U.S. lost it long ago, just like the British repeatedly did in the late 1800s and early 1900s, and as the Soviets did in the 1980s. They dont call Afghanistan the graveyard of empires for nothing. If the United States couldnt defeat the ragtag Taliban with 100,000 U.S. military personnel in the country, why would several thousand more American trainers make the corrupt, illiterate, desertion-prone Afghan security forces capable of doing so?
Most of this increased military activity overseas is done to fight radical Islamic terrorism, and is being done quietly, so as not to rile Trumps political base. And Trump has virtually turned over decisions on war to his secretary of defensewho is a former general, as is his national security adviser and his new White House chief of staffapparently to escape blame if some military action goes haywire. But the old cliche that war is too important to be left to the generals applies hereas does if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. In other words, generals usually only know how to deploy troops and fight, so they think that most violent eruptions in foreign societies require armed force to solve them.
And the generals also have a giant conflict of interest, because it was their handy work in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Somalia that actually exacerbated radicalism and terrorism in those countriesso much so that (to use another cliché) the U.S. now has a finger in the dike and needs to bring in more fingers to plug more emerging holes in those societies.
In fact, politicians, the media and the public readily heap praise on a military leadership that has been so incompetent that it made the same mistakes of using excessive force in Afghanistan and Iraq as it did in Vietnam decades earlier. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were lost long ago, as was the peace in Libya. Deposing dictator Sadaam Hussein in Iraq was a disaster, so why was U.S. military leadership complicit in thinking a different outcome would occur when the United States did the same thing in Libya? Unsurprisingly, chaos, mayhem, internecine conflict and terrorism resulted yet again.
As a candidate, Trump opposed all those wars, so why then, as president, doesnt he withdraw U.S. forces, instead of escalating these conflicts? Predictably, Trump has adopted former President George W. Bushs strategy of the best defense [of the United States] is a good offense [overseas], used in Ws failed so-called global war on terror. It was counterproductive for Bush (and Obama), and it likely will prove so for Trump. Bushs invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq stoked Islamist terrorism in those countries and worldwide.
Trump can probably get away with going against his political base if he escalates these wars quietly, using small numbers of ground forces and airstrikes. However, when this aggressive policy merely fuels the adversarys resistance, the generals will want to escalate even more, as they did in Vietnam. Although Americans care less about foreign policy than they do about the economy, taxes, infrastructure, health care and other issues that affect their pocketbooks, a major quagmire involving large numbers of American forces overseas is not popular at election time, as voting showed in 2006 and 2008.
Trump should think about that before dipping his toe back into all these nonstrategic backwater nationsbut he cant. Not only is he absent a coherent strategy to win in any of these perpetual foreign hell holes, but he also doesnt have an overarching national vision for what an effective U.S. role in the world should be.
|Ivan Eland is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at the Independent Institute. Dr. Eland is a graduate of Iowa State University and received an M.B.A. in applied economics and Ph.D. in national security policy from George Washington University. He spent 15 years working for Congress on national security issues, including stints as an investigator for the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Principal Defense Analyst at the Congressional Budget Office.|
A candid reassessment of the presidential scorecard over the past 100 years, identifying the hypocrisy of those who promised to limit government while giving due credit when presidents lived up to their rhetoric.