It is hard to blame Paraguayans for their choice of Lugo. He was the only ballot alternative to the Colorado Party, which has been in power for six decades. After the defeat of Mexicos Institutional Revolutionary Party, Paraguays Colorados became the longest-ruling party in the world, and spanned the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner and every government since the return of democracy in 1989. The system was based on massive patronagethe reason 120,000 out of the 185,000 civil servants are party members, public officials own a large chunk of the economy and the judiciary is politically subservient.
The fact that Lugo won with 41 percent of the vote and that the Colorado Party candidates who came in second and third had more votes combined than the former bishop indicates the extent of that organizations grip on Paraguayan society. However, a significant number of citizens from very different political backgrounds drove their support to the only leader with a chance of beating the ruling party. As a result, the president-elects Patriotic Alliance for Change is made up of parties and movements that cover the political spectrum. In fact, the Authentic Radical Liberal Party, the largest one in the Lugo coalition, is center-right and detests Venezuelas Chavez.
None of this guarantees, of course, that Lugo will not choose to join the Chavez club. He comes from the liberation theology traditionthe wing of the Catholic Church that uses Marxism to explain society in class terms and dependency theory to blame underdevelopment on the predatory instincts of rich nations. That movement gained such force in Latin America that Pope John Paul II led a crusade against it in the 1980s with the help of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, the current pope. As a result, liberation theology lost a lot of groundwhich makes Lugos recent victory a somewhat passe affair. But perhaps it is precisely because of John Paul IIs success that Latin America has had to wait until 2008 to have its first liberation theology follower elected as a president.
Many facts seem to work against Lugos left-wing instincts. His Patriotic Alliance for Change will be in the minority in Congress. Paraguays economy is closely linked to that of Brazil, where a moderate government is in power: Brazilians own many of the farms on which soybeans are grown in Paraguay, and Paraguay sells to Brazil $300 million a year worth of energy from the Itaipu hydroelectric plant co-owned by both countries. However, similar things were said of Rafael Correa when he won Ecuadors elections in 2007; Correa went on to dismiss Congress with popular support and join Chavezs club. It was also said of Bolivias Morales that the resistance in parts of the country against the central government would limit his capacity to maneuver, and that Brazils presence in his countrys natural gas industry would be a moderating factor. Morales proved everyone wrong.
We dont know which way Lugo is going to go. But we do know this: Paraguayans did not vote against globalization, free markets or good relations with the United States. They voted against authoritarian rule, patronage, elitism and corruptionthe very characteristics of Latin American populism of the kind that Chavez, Morales, Correa and Nicaraguas Daniel Ortega are implementing. Whatever it calls itselfthe right or the leftand whether it sings the praises of the United States or denounces imperialism, Latin American populism is greatly responsible for the poverty that still exists in the region, including 41 percent of Paraguayans. Correcting that state of affairs by giving Paraguay a more revolutionary form of populism would be a much worse sin on the part of this former bishop than having angered the church hierarchy by becoming a politician.
Lugo should keep in mind that what the Colorado Party system and Chavezs populist republic have in common is much more important than what separates them.
Alvaro Vargas Llosa
Alvaro Vargas Llosa is Senior Fellow of The Center on Global Prosperity at The Independent Institute. He is a native of Peru and received his B.S.C. in international history from the London School of Economics. His weekly column is syndicated worldwide by the Washington Post Writers Group, and his Independent Institute books include Lessons From the Poor: Triumph of the Entrepreneurial Spirit, The Che Guevara Myth and the Future of Liberty, and Liberty for Latin America.
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